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Exam 20: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

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Question 31

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The NYSE works 5-day work per week.If we want to measure the impact of the day of the week on NYSE performance we would need:

A) 7 indicator variables
B) 6 indicator variables
C) 5 indicator variables
D) 4 indicator variables

E) A) and B)
F) B) and C)

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Question 32

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The seasonal variation,one of the four different components of a time series,is more likely to exhibit the relatively steady growth of the population of the United States from 181 million in 1960 to 273 million in 1999.

A) True
B) False

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Question 33

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In measuring seasonal and random variation of a time series with no cyclical effect,we may use the:

The high level of airline ticket sales that travel agencies experience during summer is an example of what component of a time series?

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

Mattress Sales Monthly mattress sales (in $1,000s)of a mattress store are shown below. $\begin{array} { | l | c c c c c c | } \hline \text { Manth } & \text { Jan. } & \text { Feb. } & \text { March } & \text { April } & \text { May } & \text { June } \\\hline \text { Sales } & 73 & 65 & 72 & 82 & 86 & 90 \\\hline\end{array}$ -{Monthly Mattress Sales Narrative} Calculate the four-month moving average,and four-month centered moving average.

In exponentially smoothed time series,the smoothing constant w is chosen on the basis of how much smoothing is required.In general,which of the following statements is true?

To calculate the five-period moving average for a time series,we average the value in that time period,the values in the two preceding time periods,and the values in the two following time periods.

After estimating a trend model for annual time-series data,you obtain the following residual plot against time. The problem with your model is that:

The level of construction employment in West Virginia is lowest during the winter.A model designed to forecast construction employment in Charleston should use:

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

Which of the following equations deseasonalize a time series,where T,C,S,and R are respectively the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random variation components of the time series?

Each forecast using the method of exponential smoothing depends on all the previous observations in the time series.

Holiday Hours The total holiday hours (in 1000s)were recorded for 16 quarters in a large steel mill as shown below. $\begin{array} { | c | c c| } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Quarter } & \text { Overtime Hours } \\\hline 2011 & 1 & 32 \\& 2 & 15 \\& 3 & 21 \\& 4 & 28 \\\hline 2012 & 1 & 35 \\& 2 & 16 \\& 3 & 27 \\& 4 & 29 \\\hline 2013 & 1 & 36 \\& 2 & 21 \\& 3 & 25 \\& 4 & 37 \\\hline 2014 & 1 & 41 \\& 2 & 29 \\& 3 & 31 \\& 4 & 40 \\\hline\end{array}$ -{Holiday Hours Narrative} What do the seasonal indexes tell us?

Microprocessors Annual production (in millions)of computer microprocessors in a large electronics company was recorded as shown below $\begin{array} { | c | r c | } \hline \text { Year } & t & \text { Production } \\\hline 2011 & 1 & 26 \\2012 & 2 & 23 \\2013 & 3 & 21 \\2014 & 4 & 25 \\2015 & 5 & 32 \\2016 & 6 & 38 \\2017 & 7 & 43 \\2018 & 8 & 36 \\2019 & 9 & 29 \\2020 & 10 & 25 \\\hline\end{array}$ -{Microprocessors Narrative} Calculate the percentage of trend for each time period.

If the time series is composed of ____________________ variation and ____________________ trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

In determining monthly seasonal indexes for gas consumption,the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1150.To get the seasonal indexes,each of the 12 monthly means is to be multiplied by:

ebay Storefront Sales The sales figures (in $1000s)have been recorded in an ebay storefront as shown in the following table. $\begin{array} { | c c | c c | } \hline \text { Time Periad } & y & \text { Time Periad } & y \\\hline 1 & 35 & 9 & 46 \\2 & 32 & 10 & 43 \\3 & 29 & 11 & 48 \\4 & 26 & 12 & 41 \\5 & 28 & 13 & 34 \\6 & 32 & 14 & 29 \\7 & 38 & 15 & 25 \\8 & 43 & 16 & 23 \\\hline\end{array}$ -{ebay Storefront Sales Narrative} Calculate the percentage of trend for each time period.

The trend line $\hat { y }$ = 500 + 30t, (t = 1,2,3,.... ,20),and the seasonal indexes shown in the table below were computed from five years of quarterly sales data.Forecast the sales for the next four quarters. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Quarter } & \text { Seasanal Index } \\\hline 1 & 1.4 \\2 & 1.2 \\3 & 0.9 \\4 & 0.5 \\\hline\end{array}$