Question 1

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Accepted Answer

A)  contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long-term forecasts
B)  penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts
C)  sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain
D)  increasing lead times for critical supply chain members
E)  increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chainF) B) and E)
G) A) and B)

Question 3

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Accepted Answer

A)  reduce the risk that one individual's opinion will prevail.
B)  achieve a high degree of accuracy.
C)  maintain accountability and responsibility.
D)  be able to replicate results.
E)  prevent hurt feelings.F) C) and D)
G) A) and B)

Question 4

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:

What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750
B)  19,500
C)  21,000
D)  22,650
E)  22,800F) A) and B)
G) A) and E)

Question 5

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

Accepted Answer

A)  0.
B)  10.
C)  30.
D)  175.
E)  225.F) A) and E)
G) A) and D)

Question 6

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Accepted Answer

A)  time series data
B)  expert opinions
C)  Delphi technique
D)  consumer survey
E)  predictor variablesF) A) and D)
G) B) and E)

Question 8

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:

The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A)  100
B)  200
C)  400
D)  500
E)  800F) A) and B)
G) D) and E)

Question 11

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

Accepted Answer

A)  planning
B)  forecasts
C)  ordering
D)  capacity
E)  deliveriesF) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

Question 12

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:

What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was −5?

Accepted Answer

A)  49.3
B)  50.6
C)  52.0
D)  65.4
E)  78.7F) C) and E)
G) A) and C)

Question 14

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Accepted Answer

A)  mean absolute deviation
B)  mean squared error
C)  tracking signal
D)  bias
E)  MAPEF) B) and D)
G) A) and D)

Question 15

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Accepted Answer

A)  the absence of randomness.
B)  continuity of some underlying causal system.
C)  a linear relationship between time and demand.
D)  accuracy that increases the farther out in time the forecast projects.
E)  accuracy that is better when individual items, rather than groups of items, are being considered.F) C) and D)
G) B) and D)

Question 16

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  leading variable
B)  mean squared error
C)  Delphi technique
D)  exponential smoothing
E)  mean absolute deviationF) B) and C)
G) B) and D)

Question 17

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:

What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750
B)  19,500
C)  21,000
D)  22,650
E)  22,800F) None of the above
G) A) and D)

Question 18

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Accepted Answer

A)  quantity; percentage
B)  percentage; quantity
C)  quantity; quantity
D)  percentage; percentage
E)  qualitative; quantitativeF) B) and E)
G) A) and E)

Question 19

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 3: Forecasting

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
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Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Correct Answer
verified

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Correct Answer
verified

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Correct Answer
verified

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Correct Answer
verified

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Correct Answer
verified

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct Answer
verified

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Correct Answer
verified

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Correct Answer
verified

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

Correct Answer
verified

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Correct Answer
verified

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Correct Answer
verified

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

Correct Answer
verified

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Correct Answer
verified

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

Correct Answer
verified

Exam 3: Forecasting

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified