Question 1

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?

Accepted Answer

A)  smoothes random variations in the data
B)  weights each historical value equally
C)  lags changes in the data
D)  requires only last period's forecast and actual data
E)  smoothes real variations in the dataF) B) and E)
G) C) and E)

Question 2

In business, forecasts are the basis for:

Accepted Answer

A)  capacity planning
B)  budgeting
C)  sales planning
D)  production planning
E)  all of the aboveF) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

Question 3

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  mean squared error technique
B)  mean absolute deviation
C)  double smoothing
D)  least squares estimation
E)  predictor regressionF) All of the above
G) B) and D)

Question 4

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

Accepted Answer

A)  decreased
B)  increased
C)  multiplied by a larger alpha
D)  multiplied by a smaller alpha
E)  eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSEF) A) and E)
G) A) and D)

Question 5

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  smoothes random variations in the data
B)  weights each historical value equally
C)  has an easily altered weighting scheme
D)  has minimal data storage requirements
E)  smoothes real variations in the dataF) B) and D)
G) C) and D)

Question 7

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF)  consists of:

Accepted Answer

A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor
B)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor
E)  a moving average and a trend factorF) None of the above
G) A) and C)

Question 8

What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?

Accepted Answer

A)  144
B)  140
C)  142
D)  148
E)  163F) B) and E)
G) A) and D)

Question 9

Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast weekly new car sales.Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain.Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 .

Accepted Answer

Summary:
Exponenti...

Question 11

Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

Accepted Answer

A)  80.8
B)  93.8
C)  100.2
D)  101.8
E)  108.2F) C) and D)
G) D) and E)

Question 12

Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  leading variable
B)  Mean Squared Error (MS
E)  
C)  Delphi technique
D)  exponential smoothing
E)  Mean Absolute Deviation (MA
D)  F) A) and C)
G) A) and B)

Question 13

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  49
B)  50
C)  52
D)  65
E)  78F) B) and D)
G) C) and D)

Question 15

Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1

Accepted Answer

<img  loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/blured-textbook.svg" class="d-inline m-1" alt="blured image" width="139" height="30"> .4(17) + ...

Question 16

If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of regression analysis.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Accepted Answer

A)  quantity, percentage
B)  percentage, quantity
C)  quantity, quantity
D)  percentage, percentage
E)  qualitative, quantitativeF) A) and B)
G) C) and D)

Question 19

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Accepted Answer

A)   immediately reflect changing patterns in the data
B)   lead changes in the data
C)   smooth variations in the data
D)   operate independently of recent data
E)   assist when organizations are relocatingF) A) and E)
G) A) and B)

Question 20

What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750
B)  19,500
C)  21,000
D)  22,650
E)  22,800F) B) and E)
G) A) and E)

Exam 3: Forecasting

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1

Correct Answerverified .4(17) + ...View AnswerShow Answer

In business, forecasts are the basis for:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast weekly new car sales.Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain.Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 .

Correct Answerverified Summary:Exponenti...View AnswerShow Answer

In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of regression analysis.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

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Summary:
Exponenti...
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In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.

Correct Answer
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