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Exam 10: Forecasting

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Question 41

True/False

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A moving-average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the time-series data when more values are included in the average

A) True
B) False

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Question 42

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Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean square error?

A) 3
B) 4
C) 12
D) 12 5
E) 50

F) B) and D)
G) B) and E)

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Question 43

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The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: Time Period :Demand 5 years ago :900 4 years ago : 700 3 years ago : 600 2 years ago :500 Last year :300 -What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last three years?

The previous trend line has predicted 18,500 for two years ago,and 19,700 for last year What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

In exponential smoothing with trend,the forecast consists of:

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data: Year :Enrollments 5 years ago :15,000 4 years ago :16,000 3 years ago :18,000 2 years ago :20,000 Last year :21,000 -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments.Thus,he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments.He has gathered the following data: Week # of students 6 weeks ago 83 5 weeks ago 110 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 -What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = 0 2,if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?

The mean absolute deviation is the sum of the absolute value of forecasting errors divided by the number of forecasts

A manager uses the equation y = 40,000 + 150x to predict monthly receipts What is the forecast for July if x = 0 in April?

The last-value forecasting method requires a linear trend line

Given an actual latest demand of 59,a previous forecast of 64,and $\alpha$ = 0 3,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

The goal of time-series forecasting methods is to estimate the mean of the underlying probability distribution of the next value of the time-series as closely as possible

Once accepted by managers,forecasts should not be overridden

A time-series is said to be smooth if its underlying probability distribution usually remains the same from one period to the next

Linear regression can be used to approximate the relationship between independent and dependent variables